Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e89332df4665dfb81d8ec797ad25c59a4f5f7eb07ea027d3d625cc9acd02995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 20c | 2,811$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.15 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3608…f563backed Under | 31c | 1,899$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 79c | 1,884$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.6 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 1,411$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 27c | 711.77$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 684.9$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 69c | 390$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 19c | 119.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 13c | 105.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 20c | 104.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 80c | 100.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 32c | 89.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 20c | 84.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…7a05backed Under | 32c | 81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…0060backed Over | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…0c27backed Under | 30c | 76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…bd4dbacked Over | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…585cbacked Under | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…b216backed Over | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…3836backed Under | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…0d7abacked Over | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb6…1f31backed Under | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…37e7backed Over | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…f124backed Under | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…579abacked Over | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…f15fbacked Over | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…7274backed Over | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…0c24backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2f…42ccbacked Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…3f57backed Under | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…cc08backed Under | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…a1b6backed Over | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…1734backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 75c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…3d52backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.