Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e962bd94f10529a7a791bcddce2420e5f33effb4b48fc6c89caa36104b8acd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0059…808abacked Yes | 1c | 2,449$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 52c | 639.16$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 313.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 295.33$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 289.51$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 41c | 260.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.91 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 244.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 47c | 235.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 200.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 39c | 169.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 51c | 167$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked No | 66c | 151.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 105.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 94.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 90.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 88.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 87.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 86.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 27c | 86.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 83.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 49c | 80.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 77.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 73.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 33c | 60.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 59.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 49c | 57.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 56.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 52.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 67c | 40.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 43c | 37.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 37.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 22.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…c91ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.