Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ea151828857b6561b1583bbe9e7521df5909a5bdd16df8c2484b1ff5aaad5ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 764.68$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 321.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 219.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 44c | 197.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 180.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 153.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 150.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 148.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 135.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 8c | 128.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 44c | 113.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 109.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 89.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 42c | 76.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 73.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 70.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 70.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 64.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 70c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 48.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 39.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 36.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 35.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 70c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 67c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 71c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a2c5backed No | 75c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.