Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a52b2dc782917415b29f6057f0fd51073e8d72f3cb89aa4696441f35a11dbef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 1,018$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 578.6$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.66 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 36c | 499.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 310.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 271.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 59c | 211$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 194.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 181.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 175$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 163$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 160.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 159.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 152.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 65c | 152.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 148.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 140.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 133.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 127.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 98.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 97.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 95.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 90.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 87.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 36c | 71.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 70.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 69.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 67c | 67.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 74c | 67.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 64c | 63.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…1e09backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 32c | 62.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 59.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 57.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 56.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 52c | 49.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 48.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 42.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…7bf6backed Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 69c | 34.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 35c | 34.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 64c | 27.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 27.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 21.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.