Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb849769894b3278cb6e911b1085fe4d95ff743ea9fd418c4b37b977b18e59b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,703 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 933.44$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed No | 24c | 885.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 812.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 30c | 554.97$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.17 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 518.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 382.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 67c | 367.79$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 6c | 315.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.79 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 10c | 304.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 26c | 247.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.67 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 226.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 9c | 223.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…911cbacked Yes | 9c | 212$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 192.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 186$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 33c | 180$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 30c | 160.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 159$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed Yes | 40c | 155.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 13c | 149.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 131.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 44c | 107.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 107.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 99.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 29c | 94.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 94.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 17c | 93.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 79.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 72.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 71.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…2cdcbacked Yes | 18c | 64.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6529…8184backed Yes | 18c | 63.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +471.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 51c | 48.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…5044backed Yes | 45c | 40.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 30.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 24.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 18.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b46bbacked No | 78c | 17.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 68c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.