TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,281 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes3c2,938$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.518,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No63c1,139$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.9132157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No75c534.3$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.354887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes50c407.64$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.86119.7%12 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c375.58$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c295.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes44c292.09$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.376848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes39c252.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes58c181.62$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes29c181$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.291,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c177.1$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.81,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c167.62$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No64c156.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0227756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No72c156.33$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8431170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf77b…42e9backed No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No57c128.51$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.671,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes21c125$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c124.66$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.353,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c119.49$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.721,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes33c113.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.812552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No74c111.26$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.241,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c102.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.513,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No47c93.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.261,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No63c90.83$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5132…585ebacked Yes48c85.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c83.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.474,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c6…30f4backed No67c75.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798b…d699backed Yes42c72.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed Yes25c71.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.825350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes47c69.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes32c67.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.846824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes41c67.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No54c67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.087767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c66.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.887,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No75c66.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.615874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes40c62.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No77c58.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2729056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c57.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2018…640abacked Yes35c57.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes43c54.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.781029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes28c54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3659818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No73c53.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.325,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd417…9438backed No69c51.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes31c49.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.036137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes45c49.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.399,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No69c46.36$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No65c45.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.767065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes44c45.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No63c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.831,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c43.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes35c42.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No57c41.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.965431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfcaf…435fbacked Yes38c41.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes39c38.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5310237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked No78c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.268076.3%61 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1879…b287backed No52c31.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.132040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No54c31.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3228648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes35c30.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.595271.2%37 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No52c30.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.393554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.74,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.949675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No56c29.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x2a3b…c508backed Yes38c29.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes47c29.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes54c29.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.931,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xdefc…c010backed Yes40c29.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed Yes37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7332760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2569…5044backed Yes40c28.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…41cebacked Yes44c26.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+2,980%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c26.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.842,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No48c26.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7913531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d8…f72dbacked No63c25.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e2…755dbacked No64c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes46c25.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4230333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c79…c259backed No54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.463467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0d6…e222backed No68c24.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick66cpaid-32.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No63c24.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0110058%58 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes52c23.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35df…84d2backed Yes50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No53c22.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.611,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.561,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No69c21.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c21.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.933,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No60c21.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.396934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.612567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.630652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No57c19.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No66c19.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.577777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No71c18.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No66c17.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6419058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.