TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,277 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a04…b254backed Yes1c5,097$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9859818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes1c1,021$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c960.92$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes44c506.71$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes24c463.78$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.192814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked No78c402.45$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.452740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No26c401.53$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No33c353.4$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1646824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c296.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes34c295.11$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No51c281.15$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8221641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No71c257.49$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.181,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes22c220.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3981234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c217.09$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No24c211.39$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6633620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No8c200$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.191,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes30c168.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes32c153.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No64c153.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.537081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed Yes79c153$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.838341%34 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c152.81$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes50c147.34$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.671526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c147.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.511,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c134.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes22c133.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.631,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No76c132.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2711878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes64c116.46$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.726848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes38c115.04$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3337056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes26c114.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No44c113.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5113531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes69c110.72$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.892673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes74c110$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes31c108.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0631170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf77b…42e9backed Yes31c108.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.613076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5911…911cbacked Yes21c106$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+135.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes46c105$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.31,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No74c97.54$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3612068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes12c93.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6314915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c88.34$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.218,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7908…4f35backed Yes25c85.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63339.1%3 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-3.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No59c82.03$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.847546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c80.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.42,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes26c78.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.396835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No70c78.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2919259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked Yes19c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.417330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2569…5044backed Yes40c74.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes18c72.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes45c71.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b7…14e9backed Yes75c70$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.196645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec2…b46cbacked No38c65.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No55c65.29$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.291,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c6…30f4backed Yes47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefc…c010backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes25c62.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.871,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c62.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.775,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes17c58.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1124414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5132…585ebacked Yes29c57.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No67c56.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.521,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes48c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No33c50.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc495…b421backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.454953.1%26 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes26c49.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.842438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No54c46.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.381,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes34c46.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No54c44.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.542,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No42c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.471,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c40.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5370770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes55c39.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes42c38.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No63c36.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.435375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked No76c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.748076.3%61 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c34.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes40c29.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.983767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2de…ff4fbacked No71c27.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.976460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No73c27.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.447442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes72c27.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-80%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a35…41cebacked Yes38c26.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+2,980%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes67c26.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.711,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No64c26.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4176371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed No77c26.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.048151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes44c24.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8561659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No60c24.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.763,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No65c23.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.287767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No69c21.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7332669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No70c20.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0127756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes73c20.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651668.8%11 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick76cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee0…9a1ebacked Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No59c18.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.571,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No80c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.235362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No75c15.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.94,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No70c15.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.515431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.