Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri State Bears vs. Liberty Flames
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eba647d49fefd300c807203fbce71c001c92c82ec16803fba2a87128a281b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liberty Flamesof Missouri State Bears, Liberty Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Liberty Flames | 78c | 992.66$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.68 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…8edcbacked Missouri State Bears | 25c | 980.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri State Bears | 17c | 784.32$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Missouri State Bears | 19c | 631.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Missouri State Bears | 24c | 628$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Missouri State Bears | 8c | 569.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Liberty Flames | 74c | 514.04$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Missouri State Bears | 19c | 436$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Missouri State Bears | 16c | 359.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Missouri State Bears | 20c | 340$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Missouri State Bears | 5c | 312.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Liberty Flames | 80c | 306.9$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State Bears | 16c | 273.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Missouri State Bears | 19c | 165$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 182 | 30.8%56 W · 126 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Liberty Flames | 68c | 124.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Missouri State Bears | 18c | 112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Missouri State Bears | 17c | 111.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Missouri State Bears | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Missouri State Bears | 15c | 86.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Liberty Flames | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Missouri State Bears | 16c | 66.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Missouri State Bears | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Liberty Flames | 79c | 51.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Liberty Flames | 78c | 39.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Missouri State Bears vs. Liberty Flamesthis page
- Spread: Liberty Flames (-9.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.