TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$299,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2c1…9fe2backed RED Canids49c31,181$15,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,055.762850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked RED Canids47c30,111$14,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,069.915131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdd…23dcbacked FURIA Esports51c21,125$10,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,803.8317163.2%108 W · 63 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed FURIA Esports51c20,000$10,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,198.3912850%64 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked FURIA Esports53c17,850$9,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,480.91,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed FURIA Esports54c15,641$8,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,440.264155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FURIA Esports52c15,163$7,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,885.011,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked FURIA Esports53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.988444%37 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed FURIA Esports54c9,787$5,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.2334837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1e6abacked RED Canids49c7,042$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,618.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed FURIA Esports54c6,879$3,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,714.6616454.9%90 W · 74 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed RED Canids46c6,170$2,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,331.85954.2%32 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked RED Canids51c5,391$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,667.132,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c47…1189backed RED Canids48c4,401$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed RED Canids46c4,295$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.493,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063a…8382backed FURIA Esports53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked FURIA Esports18c3,694$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.996237.1%23 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked RED Canids49c3,571$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.4217537.1%65 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FURIA Esports21c3,366$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.11,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked FURIA Esports44c3,172$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.646131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed RED Canids56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd40c…2d0fbacked RED Canids49c2,987$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked RED Canids49c2,652$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.2332345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed RED Canids47c2,645$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.8919042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed RED Canids60c2,571$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.2314554.5%79 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked FURIA Esports52c2,551$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.492646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked RED Canids52c2,444$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.222,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FURIA Esports34c2,375$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.3567931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2615…6c59backed FURIA Esports35c2,278$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.43267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked RED Canids49c2,271$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.6559248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed RED Canids59c2,243$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.2815433.1%51 W · 103 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed FURIA Esports51c2,200$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1222,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed FURIA Esports17c2,192$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.5426144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed FURIA Esports47c2,035$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.714736.2%17 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc519…c2d9backed FURIA Esports51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed FURIA Esports54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9921028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed RED Canids48c1,886$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.6410243.1%44 W · 58 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed RED Canids52c1,870$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.3130247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed RED Canids46c1,858$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.218347%86 W · 97 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed RED Canids47c1,772$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.16580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+117.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6cb…9e03backed RED Canids47c1,730$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked FURIA Esports36c1,641$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FURIA Esports37c1,556$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.51,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked RED Canids62c1,495$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.3919640.3%79 W · 117 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed RED Canids47c1,448$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.3642735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed RED Canids46c1,400$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7561,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed RED Canids56c1,329$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.449048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae6…7acabacked RED Canids46c1,272$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.742839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked RED Canids46c1,260$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.379548.4%46 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked RED Canids49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6127754.5%42 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed RED Canids49c1,184$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked FURIA Esports43c1,174$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.0153640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed RED Canids51c1,155$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.924041.3%99 W · 141 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed RED Canids46c1,115$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.2214761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed RED Canids49c1,021$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.156432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed RED Canids49c1,020$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.0216935.5%60 W · 109 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed RED Canids60c1,020$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.132,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked RED Canids47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5305556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed RED Canids46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54039749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked FURIA Esports53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5304744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FURIA Esports54c999.97$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed RED Canids46c944.66$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.3618829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed FURIA Esports38c903.95$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.181,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked RED Canids49c888$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.278050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…d461backed RED Canids47c878.72$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.723441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked RED Canids51c861.35$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.6544743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked FURIA Esports54c856.18$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.2611742.7%50 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8be…444ebacked FURIA Esports30c855.71$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked RED Canids52c820.22$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.2828837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed FURIA Esports11c803.55$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.391,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked RED Canids49c800$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41212333.3%41 W · 82 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked RED Canids46c778.78$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.5426448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed FURIA Esports54c760$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.382733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed FURIA Esports13c751.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010443.3%45 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed FURIA Esports53c747.73$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014935.6%53 W · 96 L-12.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d4c…935ebacked RED Canids52c744$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.3213433.6%45 W · 89 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed FURIA Esports27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20092342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed FURIA Esports50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed FURIA Esports54c650$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.515255.3%84 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports27c650$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.52,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ba…1ae8backed FURIA Esports46c637.58$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.41040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2b3…c439backed FURIA Esports54c613$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.02742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-43.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9715…e33ebacked RED Canids47c612.98$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed RED Canids47c611.32$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.2224941.4%103 W · 146 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e4…116abacked RED Canids49c607.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.784744.7%21 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd246…95d8backed FURIA Esports54c605$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked RED Canids47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31815141.7%63 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd248…0ceebacked RED Canids46c598.97$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63af…233dbacked RED Canids74c577.86$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.242360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed FURIA Esports52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed FURIA Esports31c562.23$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1915243.4%66 W · 86 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed RED Canids47c499$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.472466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+50.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed FURIA Esports40c485$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.311,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2fd7…7e74backed RED Canids75c480$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201275%9 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed FURIA Esports32c476.19$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.161,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FURIA Esports48c476.14$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.327636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed RED Canids47c463.83$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.837927.8%22 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed RED Canids47c451.76$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7618742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe692…ea10backed FURIA Esports15c450$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed RED Canids46c436.05$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.4710851.9%56 W · 52 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.