Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eeb4c3f950db13a2e3902cf73f6debbd8c745f18004009aa8e7793c69384cf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 371.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 33c | 222.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 30c | 182.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 58c | 140.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…9cd9backed Yes | 58c | 129.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 121.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 51c | 119.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 13c | 113.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 112.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 104.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 15c | 102.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 59c | 93.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 88.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 16c | 69.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 67c | 67.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 67.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 64.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 19c | 56.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 20c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 31c | 47.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 38.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…7946backed No | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 27.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 24.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 22.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.