Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d89ee76ec747d487f74a139dba3be66d03a243f281e4a7c234d2683214e444f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 53c | 496.46$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.02 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 371.56$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.16 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 47c | 262.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.66 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 207.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 150.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 48c | 122.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 42c | 99.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 99.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 88.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 65.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 61.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 80c | 61.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 61.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 51c | 56.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 75c | 56.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +24.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 53.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…3a4cbacked Yes | 80c | 53.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 42.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 34.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…c3a7backed Yes | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 52c | 33.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 68c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 57c | 28.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c3…fc7bbacked Yes | 47c | 24.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…4501backed No | 58c | 23.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ed…548fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 21.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…3489backed No | 53c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x704e…46d9backed No | 58c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.