Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eeb9863bdbb1afeb00a31cfa5df18c00cb2acddb0a1f748c2a5522ec58827aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 502.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 303.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 71c | 249.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 236.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 72c | 216$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 53c | 197.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 166.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 49c | 147.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 79c | 145.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 20c | 141.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 13c | 125.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 115.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 110.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 74c | 100.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 52c | 100.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 46c | 94.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 86.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 82.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 42c | 75.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 69.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 44c | 68.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 62.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 60.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 59.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 58.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 56.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 58c | 49.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 52c | 48.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 45c | 46.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 27c | 43.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 35c | 40.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 76c | 38.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…c061backed No | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 36c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5655…cad4backed No | 60c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 50c | 32.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 27.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 43c | 27.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed No | 57c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 55c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 23.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 74c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…1ae6backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.