NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eeb9bbc014ca9720dd0ff7dc0c57179ffaed3ea73546eee8d35f249b8b0ae80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 22c | 984$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 77c | 799$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.21 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 18c | 671.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 24c | 666.25$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 591.81$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 76c | 396.77$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Under | 71c | 329.13$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 61c | 260.5$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 76c | 260.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 8c | 206.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 14c | 202.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 20c | 200.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…c092backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 160.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Under | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 13c | 134$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 79c | 73.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 28c | 51.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 28c | 51.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 60c | 34.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 79c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over | 76c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5this page
- Sabres vs. PanthersSabres won
- Sabres vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.