Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f06a58ad1eaef3440f4790516b42bf1af8ddd11b53bf83e5d51122c52d357b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 1,236$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 758.07$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.21 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 45c | 288.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 15c | 253.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 238.58$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 70c | 217.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 208$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 172.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 138.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 126.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 60c | 117.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 105.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 101.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 77c | 100.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 35c | 87.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 83.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 78.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 43c | 73.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 69.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 63c | 68.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 57.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 25c | 54.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 52.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 69c | 49.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 79c | 49.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 66c | 49.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 66c | 19.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 18.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.