Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0e3af7a565e45b19eb6e9191dab39bd41e00d2f7ed137259c427599700878a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 6c | 41,668$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.08 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 17c | 6,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,531$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.62 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 7c | 1,014$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 17c | 936.6$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 788$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 329.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 6c | 280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 16c | 211.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 18c | 204$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 187.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 17c | 157.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.