TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros67c2,019$1,359 inLost-$1,358.9711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Detroit Tigers52c1,922$999 inWon+$922.5691252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros41c1,200$489 inLost-$4895,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers58c712.05$410 inWon+$302.146,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros46c540$249 inLost-$249.164,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers35c399$140 inWon+$259.353,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers61c277.34$169 inWon+$108.292,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers77c254.12$196 inWon+$57.729,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros59c247.83$146 inLost-$145.6912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers40c148$59 inWon+$89.048,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Houston Astros65c143$93 inLost-$92.951,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers33c108.3$36 inWon+$72.565,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros12c91.72$11 inLost-$11.061,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers56c52.17$29 inWon+$23.082,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Detroit Tigers53c51.27$27 inWon+$24.157747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros45c45.15$20 inLost-$20.161,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Detroit Tigers35c42.84$15 inWon+$27.8544345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Detroit Tigers53c39$21 inWon+$18.3511951.3%61 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Detroit Tigers66c30.17$20 inWon+$10.374,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros66c29$19 inLost-$19.145,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Detroit Tigers40c26.37$10 inWon+$15.911,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros48c25.06$12 inLost-$12.088,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd875…19cfbacked Detroit Tigers51c21.16$11 inWon+$10.37875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.