MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dd83f70dbe12abae3a96443afb67198aa5e3e5f14293aca4326fd5836879db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 2,595$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.9 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 1,279$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.06 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 533.07$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.68 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 428.63$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.79 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 63c | 420$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 303.25$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 255.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 233.62$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 37c | 233.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 63c | 187.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 13c | 144.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 44c | 133$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 33c | 69.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 47c | 55.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 71c | 49.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 58c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 43c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed Under | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 162 | 58%94 W · 68 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston AstrosDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.