TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$440,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$501,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers49c75,830$36,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,909.321,44949.5%717 W · 732 L-3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Houston Astros54c48,000$25,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,919.9877253.9%416 W · 356 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros49c44,891$22,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,049.9711,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Detroit Tigers46c36,273$16,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,587.4293353.9%503 W · 430 L+22.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros36c28,206$10,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,111.73,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Detroit Tigers56c24,154$13,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5571,69850.2%853 W · 845 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Detroit Tigers60c18,327$10,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,370.63246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros47c16,724$7,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,833.1711,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Houston Astros35c15,805$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,556.2898645%444 W · 542 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Detroit Tigers47c12,496$5,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,623.0344851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Detroit Tigers46c12,176$5,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,574.787755.8%43 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros52c11,615$6,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,066.433,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Houston Astros53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30036246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Detroit Tigers48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20047953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Houston Astros53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3005743.9%25 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Houston Astros53c9,434$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.9999249.9%495 W · 497 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,24099750.1%499 W · 498 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Detroit Tigers45c7,016$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,858.5460451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros44c5,141$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.518,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros21c4,234$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.332,20040.2%884 W · 1,316 L+3.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros19c3,853$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.098,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Houston Astros54c3,850$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.991,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros53c3,526$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.512,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Detroit Tigers47c2,795$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.792,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Houston Astros3c2,500$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6627018.9%51 W · 219 L-1.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros53c2,430$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.94,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros38c2,236$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.724,53449%2,220 W · 2,314 L-41.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Houston Astros43c2,028$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.2710744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Detroit Tigers46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08046451.1%237 W · 227 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Detroit Tigers47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Houston Astros19c1,994$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1171850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Houston Astros53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros22c1,753$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.498,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Detroit Tigers47c1,574$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.1877951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros39c1,571$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.871,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Houston Astros52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78043253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Houston Astros53c1,500$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80051449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Houston Astros3c1,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017617%30 W · 146 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Houston Astros52c1,422$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.338148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers46c1,335$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.444,55549.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L-9.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros53c1,328$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.247,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Detroit Tigers48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6506858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers70c1,224$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.9212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…4847backed Houston Astros19c1,037$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Detroit Tigers72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28019566.2%129 W · 66 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8105…955abacked Houston Astros54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Houston Astros56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022153.4%118 W · 103 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fc…dbc6backed Houston Astros45c868.87$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b4…b468backed Detroit Tigers48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Houston Astros54c809$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.8672053.3%384 W · 336 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Houston Astros53c800.61$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251,14142.7%487 W · 654 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Houston Astros55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Detroit Tigers47c749.95$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.4711642.2%49 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ca…25d3backed Houston Astros55c699.98$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Houston Astros46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017951.4%92 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17bf…9f29backed Detroit Tigers46c624.13$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3122,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…2147backed Detroit Tigers46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros54c598.58$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.231,85550.6%939 W · 916 L-6.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Houston Astros52c567.11$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.937748.8%184 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Detroit Tigers74c545.03$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8588348%424 W · 459 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Detroit Tigers48c520.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8320652.4%108 W · 98 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Detroit Tigers48c520.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8340348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6101…23bcbacked Detroit Tigers72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1409435.1%33 W · 61 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Houston Astros52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26032850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9244…643cbacked Detroit Tigers60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007057.1%40 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Detroit Tigers46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27075248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Houston Astros20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036829.6%109 W · 259 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked Houston Astros55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9924346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Detroit Tigers48c479.17$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1718860.1%113 W · 75 L+12.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked Houston Astros14c478$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9227450.7%139 W · 135 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros16c457.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.732,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers52c456$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.885,18254.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Houston Astros23c449.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8610744.9%48 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Detroit Tigers46c435$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.91,14546.4%531 W · 614 L+37.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6597…b746backed Detroit Tigers58c425.67$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6726451.1%135 W · 129 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Detroit Tigers46c420$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.82,32751.1%1,188 W · 1,139 L+26.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked Detroit Tigers55c402.96$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3316159.6%96 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Detroit Tigers47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121,42343.6%620 W · 803 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Detroit Tigers78c397.6$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4177158.1%448 W · 323 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Detroit Tigers72c391.92$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0521453.3%114 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Houston Astros54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029656.1%166 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Houston Astros33c366.39$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.752228%146 W · 376 L-57.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Detroit Tigers79c360.8$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8988253.7%474 W · 408 L+40.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Houston Astros21c348.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7237941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Houston Astros31c337.61$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5469447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros48c332.11$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.831,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eab…a853backed Houston Astros50c329.04$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Houston Astros50c329.02$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5126245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Detroit Tigers48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.595234.3%327 W · 625 L-1.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Houston Astros29c311.24$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8729252.7%154 W · 138 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Detroit Tigers47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15959752.6%314 W · 283 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085c…99e3backed Houston Astros52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15624448.4%118 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe231…93a5backed Houston Astros53c299.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9310846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Houston Astros11c298$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7829242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Detroit Tigers46c297$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3861250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Detroit Tigers60c259.36$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3681857.1%467 W · 351 L-2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Detroit Tigers79c245.78$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.611,01944.7%455 W · 564 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Houston Astros53c240.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.231,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros27c237.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.796,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.