TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,021 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros24c2,834$687 inLost-$687.2412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers77c1,432$1,096 inWon+$335.842,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros29c1,391$403 inLost-$403.2211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers71c1,384$983 inWon+$401.364,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers62c526.79$327 inWon+$200.182,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros36c149.99$54 inLost-$54.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros10c128.81$13 inLost-$13.492,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Detroit Tigers63c125$79 inWon+$45.852,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Detroit Tigers71c112$80 inWon+$32.481,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers62c93$58 inWon+$35.342,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros24c78.93$19 inLost-$18.934,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers70c78$55 inWon+$23.355,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Houston Astros38c77.93$30 inLost-$3044345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers63c67.02$42 inWon+$24.86,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros20c60.99$12 inLost-$12.081,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros37c53.7$20 inLost-$19.873,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Houston Astros38c47.81$18 inLost-$18.2136250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Detroit Tigers64c47$30 inWon+$16.921,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers63c43.71$28 inWon+$16.175,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Houston Astros38c43.68$17 inLost-$16.629354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros37c41$15 inLost-$15.1772154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2815…7f0cbacked Detroit Tigers64c23.44$15 inWon+$8.445961%36 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Detroit Tigers64c21.33$14 inWon+$7.684748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers64c15.75$10 inWon+$5.671,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf52…9cc4backed Detroit Tigers64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.63475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+40.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Detroit Tigers72c15.17$11 inWon+$4.2187370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.