Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f748be7f140183a12ddb665f3a87457dda8eb0e29128659aaca4d402a6dbc5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- alohasquadof Pipsqueak+4, alohasquad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 27c | 1,276$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.97 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 955.3$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.26 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 2c | 922.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked alohasquad | 40c | 450$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99d…1a7dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 292.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…e5f8backed alohasquad | 51c | 229$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked alohasquad | 79c | 203.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed alohasquad | 59c | 193.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…ad1abacked alohasquad | 52c | 184$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 159.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed alohasquad | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed alohasquad | 66c | 67.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 35.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked alohasquad | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 18.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…0b1abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Game Handicap: Pipsqueak+4 (-1.5) vs alohasquad (+1.5) alohasquad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.