Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2af79b3f169141cc34d7d013e2134f0408c69699a29fc91ff0ad8a10f18c3e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, alohasquad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked alohasquad | 16c | 2,713$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.74 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 2,229$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.27 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed alohasquad | 3c | 993.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed alohasquad | 23c | 829.79$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.68 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed alohasquad | 8c | 801.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 788.08$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.41 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 455.09$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked alohasquad | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed alohasquad | 28c | 368.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…9055backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 359.7$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 74c | 324.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked alohasquad | 32c | 321.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da7…f04bbacked alohasquad | 29c | 293.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed alohasquad | 27c | 269.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked alohasquad | 24c | 266.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked alohasquad | 20c | 255$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked alohasquad | 22c | 247.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed alohasquad | 20c | 233.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 209.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked alohasquad | 17c | 204.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed alohasquad | 25c | 202.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed alohasquad | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked alohasquad | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…9d2cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 175.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked alohasquad | 38c | 158.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed alohasquad | 34c | 124.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed alohasquad | 22c | 120.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…6f8cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 72c | 117.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed alohasquad | 43c | 115.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Pipsqueak+4 | 71c | 114.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed alohasquad | 21c | 106.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked alohasquad | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed alohasquad | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked alohasquad | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed alohasquad | 30c | 95.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed alohasquad | 20c | 91.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4349…eb9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 81.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed alohasquad | 20c | 81.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked alohasquad | 25c | 73.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed alohasquad | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked alohasquad | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 48.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked alohasquad | 27c | 48.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed alohasquad | 28c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…a482backed Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8bfcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 39.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked alohasquad | 28c | 38.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked alohasquad | 28c | 37.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…7f61backed Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed alohasquad | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…b6ecbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…71f0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…1481backed Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 2 Winner alohasquad won
- Game Handicap: Pipsqueak+4 (-1.5) vs alohasquad (+1.5) alohasquad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.