Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d43de847dba19bd11893326bb1098e62cb545656db27a9ab05732c1a6d84a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, alohasquad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked alohasquad | 30c | 2,121$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.39 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 71c | 1,791$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.1 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed alohasquad | 51c | 1,206$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.01 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 1,105$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.74 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed alohasquad | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 979.04$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.6 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed alohasquad | 28c | 420$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 389$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked alohasquad | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked alohasquad | 48c | 293$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked alohasquad | 30c | 228.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed alohasquad | 35c | 208.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked alohasquad | 30c | 187.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed alohasquad | 51c | 184.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed alohasquad | 30c | 167.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 163.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 118.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed alohasquad | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed alohasquad | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7266…a99fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 47.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 43.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…0b1abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed alohasquad | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs alohasquad - Game 2 Winner alohasquad won
- Game Handicap: Pipsqueak+4 (-1.5) vs alohasquad (+1.5) alohasquad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.