Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fab123254d40629b3b7b294ded94c82b2a6317adaec49005599742705ad1eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 47c | 2,059$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.81 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 1,925$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.98 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 898.09$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 780.89$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.56 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 53c | 568$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 501.81$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.68 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 22c | 394$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.22 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 283.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 22c | 281.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 269.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 209.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 31c | 199.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 166.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 37c | 134.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 126.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 29c | 104.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 55c | 104.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 27c | 94.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…f05abacked Over | 65c | 92.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Over | 30c | 87.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 86.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 52c | 76.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 54c | 66.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 62.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 60c | 49.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 57c | 46.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Over | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 39c | 36.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Over | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 32.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 76c | 23.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 72c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…8e90backed Over | 77c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.