Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9ea7c33c2fd247fb315ae46cae62fff6ab440cef4c224cd7c0a131f4cc15a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Galaxyof FC Dallas, Los Angeles Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 53c | 216.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Dallas | 32c | 175$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 68c | 175$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed FC Dallas | 48c | 171$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 50c | 48.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 66c | 44.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked FC Dallas | 24c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed FC Dallas | 48c | 39.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed FC Dallas | 48c | 37.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Dallas | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)this page
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.