Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d21bd6e597dbce0272727f6d4dbdea196e1064dcb042257ddb2c915478de468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 38c | 1,348$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.05 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 818.01$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.5 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 62c | 806.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 653.72$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.72 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 76c | 508$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 498.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 62c | 462.73$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 65c | 435.26$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 274.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 34c | 241$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 62c | 231.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 61c | 174.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 62c | 166.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 71c | 114.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 105.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 76c | 93.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 77c | 64.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 22c | 57.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 58c | 44.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Under | 34c | 42.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 66c | 42.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 76c | 37.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 70c | 37.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 78c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 59c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Under | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 23.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Over | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.