South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fbae1642b6f23edcbc6a78fcada86fd107b2f632c82b63b0692ec1875440143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Over | 57c | 12,783$7,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,252.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 10,846$5,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,861.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 41c | 4,311$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.83 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,468$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.39 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 23c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.03 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 927.37$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.54 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 51c | 840.62$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.72 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 51c | 648.04$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.5 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 62c | 430.65$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 398.88$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 352.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 233.19$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 179.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 60c | 162.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…c0acbacked Under | 68c | 132.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 128.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 56c | 101.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…67bfbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 51c | 52.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 48c | 41.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 34.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 66c | 29.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…2aefbacked Over | 49c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…e75ebacked Over | 51c | 23.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Under | 80c | 17.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.