Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Lesa Men: Blu Baker vs Andrea de Marchi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc58c88ae5b28eb970fc11db88d086fd55d3360dd0515252d671c88bb816380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrea de Marchiof Blu Baker, Andrea de Marchi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x056c…a69abacked Andrea de Marchi | 38c | 2,189$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.33 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Andrea de Marchi | 72c | 1,187$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.19 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Blu Baker | 55c | 931.71$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.34 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blu Baker | 28c | 931.32$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Blu Baker | 59c | 853.11$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.33 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Blu Baker | 28c | 259.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Andrea de Marchi | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 253 | 49%124 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Blu Baker | 61c | 175$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a9…ed86backed Andrea de Marchi | 27c | 149.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Andrea de Marchi | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Blu Baker | 64c | 125.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Blu Baker | 65c | 109.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d68…4354backed Andrea de Marchi | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 217 | 42.9%93 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…27d1backed Blu Baker | 60c | 99.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Andrea de Marchi | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Andrea de Marchi | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Andrea de Marchi | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Blu Baker | 53c | 97.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Andrea de Marchi | 39c | 96.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Blu Baker | 53c | 93.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Blu Baker | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Blu Baker | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Blu Baker | 76c | 77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…83c2backed Andrea de Marchi | 32c | 62.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 201 | 28.4%57 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed Andrea de Marchi | 73c | 60.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…e3fcbacked Blu Baker | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Blu Baker | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…07c4backed Blu Baker | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b45…ba8bbacked Blu Baker | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Blu Baker | 64c | 31.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Andrea de Marchi | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 329 | 37.1%122 W · 207 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Blu Baker | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Andrea de Marchi | 51c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd6…930fbacked Andrea de Marchi | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.