South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc79175563ee8fa004e3dd7486d6683f644ef7b511b4771a9d06e16d4882164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 67c | 2,702$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.54 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 29c | 2,097$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.12 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 33c | 1,347$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.55 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 35c | 782.86$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 34c | 564.71$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 67c | 499.07$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.69 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 77c | 436.64$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 33c | 423.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 410$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 65c | 375.39$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 65c | 320$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 67c | 225.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 14c | 127.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 15c | 122.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 95.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Over | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Over | 36c | 80.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 66c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…d948backed Under | 66c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 69c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 66c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-2.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Belgrano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.