Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe20bfb9cf42db5d6ca621e194e9e28e551863421dca84b36ed5f210fd497ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 1,254$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 19c | 635.78$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 5c | 429.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 426.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9296…ffbcbacked Yes | 78c | 335.14$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 6c | 215.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.07 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 167.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 166.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 147.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 144.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 78c | 140.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 71c | 124.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…b1aabacked Yes | 44c | 116.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 58c | 110.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 109.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 31c | 97.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 94.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 79.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 48c | 76.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 33c | 73.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 56c | 71.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 77c | 65.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 80c | 62.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 56.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 50.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 72c | 41.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 35.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 31.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 51c | 30.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 33c | 30.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 23.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 70c | 22.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 75c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 78c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.