Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bce9d14a6514b18176665feec4f22c4690a435cf8633e9daf1dc8068cf6b72e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,060$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 271.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 258$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 249.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 227.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 184.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 165.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 159.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 154.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 135.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…b1aabacked Yes | 27c | 125.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 124.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 120.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 109.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 79.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 78.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 61.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 35c | 60.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 60.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 34c | 58.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 52.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 50.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…98efbacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 38.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Yes | 31c | 36.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 35.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 30.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 77c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.