Fifa International · resolved market
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe3f98c1eb7b979197f6d2e15fb4d624c8ab99d7af1f87be7f59582f688e0db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 3c | 16,536$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.86 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 4c | 9,999$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.31 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 4,050$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 4c | 2,790$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Yes | 7c | 1,673$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,630$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,439$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 4c | 1,430$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 4c | 1,291$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 7c | 1,266$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 3c | 1,223$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 8c | 1,099$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed Yes | 4c | 951.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 3c | 856$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 3c | 598.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 5c | 435$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 4c | 341.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349f…78c9backed Yes | 7c | 337.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7121…afd2backed Yes | 7c | 313.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Yes | 4c | 298.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 189.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will Portugal vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?No won
- Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.