Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500c09c7089324aa70a7e136cefd06d144c8e4b888837828a47d492d559b62e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,809 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 4c | 1,061$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked Yes | 11c | 780$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 668.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 494.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 468.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…4b88backed Yes | 2c | 464.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 369.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 5c | 342.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 339.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 309.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 217.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 10c | 216.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 8c | 212.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…d691backed Yes | 18c | 163.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 10c | 161.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 11c | 157.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 20c | 155.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 12c | 147.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…e8fabacked Yes | 8c | 139.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 116.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 10c | 109.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…c1fbbacked Yes | 20c | 100.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 14c | 81.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 64.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…9ce1backed Yes | 16c | 62.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…8d6cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…54a6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…0be4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…7f11backed No | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…506bbacked No | 76c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7241…92acbacked No | 76c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550f…e0debacked No | 76c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.