Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2efd4fb61c05cfe9374b620d07d6a8f10cb4471e96afd523f85805794c57f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,045 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb0a…6aebbacked Yes | 20c | 3,634$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54f…0d04backed Yes | 20c | 3,559$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c4…246ebacked No | 80c | 1,230$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af5…3bfebacked No | 80c | 1,210$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…9133backed No | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ce…abacbacked No | 80c | 1,195$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518a…5d44backed No | 80c | 1,194$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…50a2backed No | 80c | 1,164$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…f7eebacked Yes | 32c | 628.52$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 554.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 13c | 329.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 291.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 14c | 250.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 226.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 214$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 14c | 198.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 186.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 182.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 14c | 162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 152$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 148.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 11c | 130.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 120.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 111.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 16c | 94.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 13c | 83.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 21c | 81.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 23c | 56.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 55.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 77c | 46.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 79c | 45.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 69c | 24.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.