Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8998c2894923fd713977f1d76cbe622e6d227f1b20e8e9276d0559f83cdceb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,274 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 48c | 973.17$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.36 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 28c | 690.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.08 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 608.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 53c | 549.76$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 475.75$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 57c | 436.36$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 51c | 411.02$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 399.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.37 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 42c | 236.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 213.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 199.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 180.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 166.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 39c | 163.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…ce32backed Yes | 43c | 161$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 46c | 160.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…45b1backed Yes | 41c | 156.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 152.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 30c | 144.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 26c | 141.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 47c | 131.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 130.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 77c | 109.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 108.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 65c | 101.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 95.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed No | 74c | 94.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 89.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 56c | 88.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 85.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 49c | 81.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 62c | 80.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 30c | 76.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 76.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…3558backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c1…0b5dbacked No | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…fb27backed No | 59c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 18c | 70.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 67.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 66.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 63.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 20c | 61.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 61.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 60.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 46c | 59.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 50c | 56.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked Yes | 44c | 56.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 31c | 51.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…e940backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 44c | 49.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 66c | 48.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 48.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 47.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 42c | 39.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 48c | 38.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 37.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 35c | 36.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 28c | 36.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…c635backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 68c | 32.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 74c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…1d7abacked No | 61c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b1…3676backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 68c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…66d8backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…6fc0backed No | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…439bbacked No | 71c | 21.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 18.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 16.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 74c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 73c | 15.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.