Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8df1199c3f1d20eb011d525dd182c6e354142b2164d76e365a3171be3b04ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,634 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed Yes | 39c | 26,800$10,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,451.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed No | 61c | 26,800$16,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,451.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…44f4backed Yes | 43c | 2,305$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828a…f2d6backed Yes | 43c | 2,259$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73d…1806backed No | 57c | 1,162$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a7…7fddbacked No | 57c | 1,153$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…79ccbacked No | 57c | 1,143$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…195ebacked No | 57c | 1,106$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 56c | 553.3$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.52 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 21c | 463.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…f7eebacked Yes | 46c | 435.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 383.48$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 383.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 253.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 50c | 219.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 213.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 213.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 201.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 24c | 200.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 197.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 170.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 163.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 152.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 148.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 148.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 126.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 24c | 121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Yes | 38c | 120.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 39c | 117$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 114.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 108.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 22c | 103.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 58c | 86.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 47c | 84.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 48c | 80.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 74.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 55c | 72.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 72.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 63.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 32c | 61.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 41c | 51.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 73c | 50.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Yes | 48c | 48.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 74c | 47.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 47.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 28c | 47.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 42.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 49c | 41.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 26c | 40.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 35c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 60c | 38.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 65c | 37.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 78c | 35.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed No | 66c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 47c | 31.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 31.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 44c | 30.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…121fbacked Yes | 48c | 28.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 68c | 27.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…bce9backed No | 39c | 25.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 75c | 25.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ece3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 77c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 80c | 17.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 72c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…4e68backed Yes | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 69c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 78c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 14.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.