Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5016b6bbb453837c098f45df38868f7ead4c23f310b6cfcb0960f640330b1c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 5,047$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.55 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 14c | 3,155$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.7 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 19c | 1,317$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.38 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Under | 51c | 710.7$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 80c | 449.06$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.24 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 50c | 421.2$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 72c | 233$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 51c | 196.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 53c | 185.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 56c | 179.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Over | 75c | 166.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 163.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 48c | 123.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 78.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 62c | 73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 41c | 66.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 56c | 51.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 54c | 49.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 42c | 48.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Over | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Over | 65c | 45.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 39.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 53c | 37.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.