Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61b0ef1bd96ccad0c63d9ebf8a60abe6abb92163058e199e24f74b6c3eb3a902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Dynamoof Los Angeles FC, Houston Dynamo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 727.27$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Los Angeles FC | 6c | 668$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Los Angeles FC | 4c | 668$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Los Angeles FC | 35c | 584.94$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Dynamo | 65c | 584.94$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.73 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Los Angeles FC | 13c | 371.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 275.72$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Los Angeles FC | 29c | 149.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles FC | 33c | 87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Los Angeles FC | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Houston Dynamo | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles FC | 33c | 54.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Los Angeles FC | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Los Angeles FC | 29c | 47.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles FC | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Los Angeles FC | 35c | 34.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 32.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Los Angeles FC | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Houston Dynamo | 66c | 23.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Houston Dynamo | 66c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Houston Dynamo | 67c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…4484backed Houston Dynamo | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Houston Dynamo | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.