MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x501b0cf0c8dba0597a3c832f09d7361f42ffc8a3b285a9a4f3866efc69e4b9a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 773.44$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 626.65$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 499.54$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 385.19$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 369$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 336$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 335.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 301$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 187.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…d536backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 174.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 119.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 98.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 51.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 35.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 25.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.