MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7332b0de4e2d32ea2b02971eeee812d1e5ec27c310ea2cf2878937682802699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 3,505$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked Under | 55c | 1,797$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 1,268$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.04 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 1,151$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.9 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 893$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 59c | 841.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 729.55$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.51 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 530.74$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 59c | 423$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 59c | 420.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 242.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 53c | 240.26$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 238.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 51c | 193.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 60c | 166.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 54c | 146.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 140.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 60c | 84.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 40c | 82.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 54c | 58.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 45c | 29.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…356fbacked Over | 46c | 29.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 54c | 22.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 59c | 21.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.