MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3261adaa4c629633a54558d57a7b242f3d9e5a220ddaadc2ed539531a73d8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 21,465$9,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,230.04 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 15,000$6,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 12,500$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 4,494$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.51 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 2,466$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 1,263$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.61 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 1,182$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,024$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 732$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.08 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 664.14$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.22 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 615.34$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.75 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 346.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 340$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 290$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 190$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 168.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 143.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 93.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 74.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 72.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 66.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 59.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 55.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 55.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…1533backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 44.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 39.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 27.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.