Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x501b1b26c03045983df2aba4f4d99c6d48ca0f8d8022473b55d6f8b58f181f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 28c | 5,695$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,099.75 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 74c | 4,045$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,022$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.29 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 27c | 989.01$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.92 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 72c | 776.99$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.43 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 71c | 609.63$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.84 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 72c | 548.77$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.14 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 75c | 425.23$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.52 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 339.22$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 75c | 299.02$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 74c | 248.8$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 144.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 112.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 78c | 97.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 58c | 69.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 73c | 53.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 74c | 51.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 72c | 46.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 72c | 46.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 72c | 46.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 72c | 46.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 45.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 45c | 41.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Under | 75c | 36.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Under | 75c | 35.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 73c | 29.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 74c | 15.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 40 | 85%34 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Under | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.