Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb3ed1693084b22e3a1b51b6e6b75c61dab421f0e60ab93a5190a43ec79e2d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 48c | 15,267$7,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,909.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 61c | 11,051$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,350.72 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 11,000$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130.14 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 13c | 4,723$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 4,331$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.7 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 1,581$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.46 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 1,446$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.21 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 1,201$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.29 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 44c | 1,080$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.94 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 910.74$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.52 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cd…acebbacked Under | 41c | 768.32$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 57c | 761.61$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.28 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 80c | 600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 80c | 564.91$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 3c | 478.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 47c | 424.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Over | 57c | 379.65$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 34c | 322.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…eb58backed Over | 73c | 260$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Over | 53c | 251$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb5…55f6backed Over | 60c | 238.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 80c | 212.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 211$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 191.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…6d97backed Under | 42c | 161.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 68c | 147.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 57c | 146.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 32c | 142.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 142.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 41c | 109.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 53c | 98.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 53c | 98.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 47c | 88.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 51c | 73.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 20c | 72.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 67c | 70.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 76c | 61.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 76c | 61.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 43c | 49.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 77c | 43.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Under | 37c | 42.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 55c | 32.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 50c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 51c | 27.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfe…4b94backed Over | 49c | 25.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Under | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Over | 69c | 23.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.