Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e4a19f0b32433af8bbf9999d150ae84e2daa355663070020c1a142b0ec99d7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ee…0bd0backed Over | 47c | 13,903$6,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,376.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,808$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.17 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 44c | 1,599$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.32 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,068$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.39 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 52c | 673.96$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.46 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 53c | 668.27$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Under | 53c | 615$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 53c | 592$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.76 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 49c | 507.91$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.11 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 53c | 460$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.8 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 431.17$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Under | 54c | 370.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 66c | 316.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 304.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 273$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 53c | 260$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 53c | 260$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 44c | 242.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Over | 48c | 236.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 215$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 213.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Under | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 53c | 156$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 53c | 156$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 12c | 124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 52c | 95.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 46c | 69.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 53c | 64.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 61.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 53c | 61.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 47c | 46.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…fc9cbacked Over | 47c | 44.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed Over | 49c | 41.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Under | 50c | 32.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 68c | 30.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 27.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 53c | 26.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 54c | 24.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 53c | 24.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 47c | 23.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 50c | 21.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.