NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x503570baea7058d1896a0f8f87c185f1ddc274f8e4d8191e49945f231aae0960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Maple Leafs, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Kraken | 69c | 4,813$3,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.03 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 3,728$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.34 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 3,503$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.93 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 69c | 1,815$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.56 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kraken | 69c | 1,183$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.31 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 951.61$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kraken | 69c | 748.71$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Kraken | 69c | 430.99$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.61 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 356$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 150.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Kraken | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Kraken | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…043cbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Kraken | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Kraken | 72c | 32.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Kraken | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. KrakenKraken won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.