NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kraken (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29580483834dce9cf4cb665b58bd898e525c3905413bea8ced8c718f70235556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Kraken, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Kraken | 31c | 6,767$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,669.23 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 3,887$2,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.17 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs | 11c | 2,779$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.13 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Maple Leafs | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 2,026$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.68 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 43c | 1,575$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kraken | 30c | 1,510$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.7 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Maple Leafs | 20c | 1,340$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 1,300$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.31 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,089$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.94 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Kraken | 38c | 789.43$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.9 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 25c | 591.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kraken | 31c | 578$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 470.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.7 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 361$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kraken | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kraken | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 287.83$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kraken | 29c | 188.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Kraken | 31c | 167.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 100.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Kraken | 33c | 94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 89.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Kraken | 29c | 76.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 73.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 72.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Kraken | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 53.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kraken | 40c | 50.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 49.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Maple Leafs | 73c | 38.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Kraken | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 36.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…0133backed Kraken | 44c | 34.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Kraken | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Maple Leafs | 44c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Kraken | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. KrakenKraken won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.