NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x978299a19d8f56b180ffecf22c93f6a9d59fdb72485d5f47fa2d228cbe6fbbc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 2,099$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.54 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,697$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.7 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 61c | 1,481$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.53 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 56c | 1,285$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.68 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 41c | 961.64$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.91 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 49c | 548.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.98 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd440…a32ebacked Under | 54c | 407.62$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 284.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 59c | 273.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c7aebacked Under | 8c | 272.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under | 12c | 208.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 25c | 206.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked Under | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 143$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over | 41c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +189%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 35c | 85.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 48c | 52.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Over | 53c | 52.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Under | 41c | 44.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 36.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. KrakenKraken won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.