NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8099c12444f93ffd7478d4e7f325b87e15a72e02a92b53667cf9bce624b49d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 60c | 2,239$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 1,824$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.77 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 30c | 1,648$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.06 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 1,616$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.93 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 64c | 1,155$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.98 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 61c | 1,038$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.21 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 73c | 950.5$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.51 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 41c | 710$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.1 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 61c | 642$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.79 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Under | 17c | 583.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 80c | 464$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 39c | 444$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 290.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 248.58$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 19c | 134.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 37c | 117.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 40c | 108.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 40c | 104.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 60c | 81.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 41.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Over | 59c | 29.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 26.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. KrakenKraken won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.