Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5044c85097422cdb476f1b8368279d8e87e1a2edf8ce47bbe9199b1241914927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,415$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.24 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 24c | 1,230$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.14 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 25c | 1,058$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.63 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 24c | 916.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 75c | 601.16$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 22c | 539.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e8…a619backed Over | 27c | 398$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 33c | 363.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 28c | 361.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590f…339dbacked Over | 27c | 351$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…d86fbacked Over | 27c | 308$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 77c | 259.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…f6b9backed Under | 73c | 252$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…2754backed Under | 73c | 247$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…b447backed Under | 73c | 237$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…a9d1backed Under | 73c | 178$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c5…9f99backed Under | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 25c | 78.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 47.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 45.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 43.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 25c | 43.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 75c | 41.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 77c | 40.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…319bbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 74c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 75c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…d08cbacked Under | 73c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 77c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Samsunspor won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.