Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31ac03ce4da7f9dffa9a6f2b58208e2911e4c0b00ffa888c44320cc0f9f0626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samsunsporof Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, Samsunspor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,193 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Samsunspor | 68c | 1,993$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.39 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 30c | 1,250$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.7 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 36c | 1,075$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 33c | 1,004$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.73 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Samsunspor | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Samsunspor | 67c | 448$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…96b4backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 31c | 329.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Samsunspor | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 35c | 285.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 35c | 258.27$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Samsunspor | 70c | 252.62$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Samsunspor | 65c | 157.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Samsunspor | 67c | 149.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Samsunspor | 66c | 131.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Samsunspor | 65c | 123$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Samsunspor | 66c | 117.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Samsunspor | 66c | 89.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Samsunspor | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 36c | 66.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Samsunspor | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Samsunspor | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Samsunspor | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Samsunspor | 65c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Samsunspor | 66c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Samsunspor | 69c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Samsunspor | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.