Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff83f88b5133af2793d7638b7eaba7e1c0b4b6391947fcbb5f5e93d13e779cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,619 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 6,366$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.99 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 45c | 6,000$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…b6babacked Under | 54c | 5,557$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 2,697$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.92 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 50c | 2,139$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.73 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 1,389$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…caeebacked Under | 58c | 1,001$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 41c | 976.73$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 46c | 893.21$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.3 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 867.95$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.58 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 34c | 787.6$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 39c | 691.74$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 50c | 686.95$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 44c | 581.81$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 55c | 554.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 10c | 521.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…3760backed Under | 54c | 514.22$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 509$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.47 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Over | 45c | 460$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 11c | 369.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 53c | 315.02$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +174%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 274.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 46c | 240.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 46c | 227.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…48d4backed Over | 45c | 207.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…7d5bbacked Under | 60c | 165.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 159.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 55c | 159.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 49c | 154$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Under | 50c | 143.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 52c | 130.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…5501backed Under | 50c | 117.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…dde1backed Over | 46c | 106.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 46c | 103.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Over | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 81.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 49c | 78.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 47c | 75.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 47c | 66.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 49c | 60.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 52c | 51.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 57c | 43.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 76c | 42.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 47c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 53c | 39.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 46c | 38.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Over | 49c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d0…a022backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 44c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…71bdbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…f221backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Samsunspor won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.